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Kilpi: India, Turkey Offer Attractive Opportunities for Paper Producers

Soile Kilpi’s Jacksonville presentation laid out, in considerable detail, reasons for pulp and paper producers contemplating future strategic moves to take a close look at these two countries.
She began by emphasizing the disparities in anticipated market growth rates between the developed and developing countries. Over the period 2005-2020 the anticipated average annual demand growth in the developed countries of North America, Western Europe and Japan is only 0.5%. This is in sharp contrast to the corresponding figure of 3.5% for non-Japan Asia, where demand will grow in response to urbanization and increases in both population and GDP. Over 60% of incremental production is forecast to be in non-Japan Asia over the next 15 years.
Within Asia, China is not the only “hot spot” of remarkable market growth. Notable among the others are India and Turkey. In India, for example, demand is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.8% between now and 2020. GDP is growing at an average annual rate of 7% and the government has reduced controls on foreign trade and investment. The literacy rate is 60% and the labor force is greater than 500 million. Turkey, with a labor force of 25 million and a literacy rate of 87%, has one of the world’s fastest growing economies. Turkey has gradually opened up its markets through economic reforms such as reducing

government controls on foreign trade and investment and privatization. In both countries, low consolidation provides attractive market entry opportunities, especially in India. Exports to Turkey from high cost efficiency locations could provide an attractive entry opportunity.
Ms. Kilpi may be contacted at soile.kilpi@poyry.com


About CPBIS: The Center for Paper Business and Industry Studies (CPBIS) is an internationally recognized academic research center providing business knowledge of relevance to the global forest products industry. The CPBIS is cosponsored by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech), and the Paper Industry.



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